The Jagged Curve That We Will Ride As COVID-19 Curve Flattens

If it had been a human being would the COVID-19 virus been a crooked magician much like the Joker in the Batman series? As another turbulent week of humungous human suffering and loss ended, strangely I am kind of fixated on an incident last week involving a senior medical administrator in the US.

Overseeing the arrangements of antibody tests in her area, she decided to be the first to test. Her move to inspire confidence backfired as the test results indicated the presence of COVID-19 fighting antibodies in her. In short, she was infected with COVID-19 without every exhibiting any symptoms and her immune system delivered a knock out punch to the virus. The incident indicates just how contagious this infection is and just how difficult it will be to combat it without specific medicinal cures and vaccines. This is even as countries like India and many others try to slowly get out of their self-employed lockdowns to check the spread of the global pandemic.

As India starts its journey out of lockdown, there is no dearth of scenario building, forecasts and predictions. Many of them are dire and grave in content, with many them talking of a radically different world that we will begin living from now on. While there can be little doubt that the next 12 -15 months would be very painful, with major disruptions to our social and economic life, I find it a little difficult to agree to the “brave new world scenarios” painted by numerous bright minds. Even the next twelve months may turn out to be fairly different from what many of us envisage.

Combating ever weaker infection waves Without vaccines that prevent COVID-19 infections and medicines that cure them, all countries will continue to suffer from thousands of cases of infections that will come in waves from time to time in 2020. Some of us will remember how it is to throw a stone in a pond with still water. The ripples created get progressively smaller as waves progress. This will also be the likely fate of subsequent waves of infections. This is simply because people in different countries will now be better informed after the first long lockdown, be more alert and take precautions, seek treatment quickly since symptoms and dangers are well-known. Most importantly, the healthcare systems will be better equipped to deal with COVID-19 patients subsequently. If India manages to reduce the rate of infections and the absolute additional numbers even by May 15 or so, as it seems likely, it would have gained a very important upper hand in its war against COVID-19.

Jagged path to normalcy Despite gaining any upper hand, in India and elsewhere in the world, new bouts of infections will keep disrupting people’s lives. That is also the reason why even if governments gradually lift restrictions, companies and individuals will very carefully and slowly venture back to some of the activities they were involved in before lockdown. So, in the next twelve months only some employees maybe asked by their companies to come to office on some days of the week. There could be multiple shifts instead of fixed work hours. The numbers and durations may increase as people gain confidence.

Restaurants may only be allowed with very spacious seating to ensure social distancing with many of the outlets forced to up the scale up their take-out services. If and when theatres are re-opened, I am sure we will not be bothered by rude people seated nearby talking on their phones loudly. Of course, all this will be allowed with strict social distancing and sanitation guidelines. Non-essential travel, mass entertainment and opening up of secondary and higher education institutions may well be the last to see restrictions lifted even as age-based restrictions such as those for senior citizens are likely to remain.

At the same time, when new outbreaks happen, the areas and their residents, whether in India or abroad, will again go under lockdowns till the tracing and tracking processes get over. So, in the months ahead, we are likely to witness a life marked by fewer physical interactions with other people in our professional and personal networks than in pre-lockdown period. Yet, they will be much more than in the lockdown period. In fact, I feel that we are unlikely to witness the kind of severe lockdown we have are now undergoing in India. But how long would we have to battle the waves of COVID-19 infection?

When the tide turns This clearly depends on when the various efforts to make the COVID-19 vaccine succeeds and when the right drug is found to counter infection. While COVID-19 infection is a new affliction for human race, thanks to the SAARS outbreak in 2002, across the world, be it in the US, UK and Australia, a lot of research had already been done for a vaccine. Work has also been going on in India and China, among other countries. In fact, had it not been disruption in funding to one vaccine project in Texas, US, some years back, some experts in US think that we might have already had a vaccine by now. In any case, given the unusually speedy clearances being given by the notoriously sluggish medical establishments in various countries, one can reasonably expect a COVID-19 vaccine to be available to doctors, nurses, paramedics and other frontline personnel during October, 2020-January 2021. The public is likely to get access to the vaccine 3-4 months after that.

Unlike the experts who are sure of a “brave new world” after the current COVID-19, I am quite sure that a most people will go back to their good old ways once a medical remedy is found for COVID-19.  At the same time, it is likely to take various countries years to regain their economic growth. In any case, economic growth was on a downward slope even before the COVID-19 outbreak and the pandemic just gave a cruel push for the downhill journey.

If anybody has any doubts about my contention, then I suggest a search on the Internet for photos of the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed millions globally. You will find most frontline professionals wearing masks. That was gone in just about a year as nations in the West got into the heady 1920s with the flu behind them. Outbreak for SAARS, Swine Flu and other recent infectious outbreaks didn’t radically alter people’s social and economic interactions even in affected countries. Once danger is out of sight, human beings start feeling invincible. Isn’t that also the reason why funding organisations and governments stopped funding the research in some of the areas?

Does this mean that there will be no lasting legacy of this terrible period in human history? Of course, apart from the human loss, the plunging of millions into deprivation in such a short period of time, there will be lasting changes for many people. But this is not as widespread as experts seem to suggest. Like the Japanese and others in South East Asia, many people in India are likely to pay much more attention to personal hygiene and sanitization. The mask may not just appear during high pollution periods in metros or like the plague scare of 1994 but be part of essential accessories for many urban Indians. More so, for those travelling abroad. These people will also spend more on such products and also factor this in their financial planning by getting insurance coverage for such risks.

Like demonetization in 2016 made many Indians embrace digital payments, even as most Indians merrily continue using cash, large number of laid off people now may find it more convenient to be part of the gig economy and specialized manpower such as those in IT and human resources might insist on work from home options to simply kick out the dreadful time wastage in enduring through hours of traffic jams.

The 1990s hit TV series “X Files” that had two FBI agents investigating mysterious UFO episodes and had a tag line ‘’the truth is out there”. The aftermath of the mysterious COVID-19 pandemic seems to have a similar ring to it. The landscape of the future seems to have features that are familiar to us and yet set to unravel in ways that we can’t anticipate since we are weighed in so heavily by our present. But hey! That’s life, isn’t it?              

Topmost Action Point In India’s Exit From Covid-19 Lockdown: Its Farming

In some hours, we will get to know the next course of India’s self-imposed lockdown to protect itself from the Covid-19 pandemic. For more than three weeks, the lockdown brought to a standstill all economic activity in the country much like more than 100 other countries that have imposed the Covid-19 lockdown. But like any other country, for India too, the lockdown couldn’t have been an indefinite remedy to the Covid-19 malady. In the last 2-3 days, there have been plenty of media reports about how the staggered exit from the lockdown is likely to take place. Clearly, apart from surviving the virus, a country like India, where millions live on the margins, needs to quickly try and kickstart, what seems like a very long journey back to economic normalcy.

This is also coming at a time when some European countries have started to loosen up the lockdown conditions. Spain has announced that it has started relaxing the lockdown conditions, Denmark and Norway did it over the weekend. There has been a lot of talk about the sectors in India that need to be given the preference to restart their operations, albeit in a small scale. Interestingly, there is very little or no discussion about farming. To me, in case of a relaxation of the lockdown in districts without any Covid-19 case or threat, it is farming and activities related to it, that should get top most priority as this sector makes the most compelling case for relaxation.

Coming on the back of a period of broadly stagnating income, most farmers find themselves with good standing crops yet to be harvested. In some cases, this is the only crop for the year. Mess with this and you add to major mess created by the massive numbers of already unemployed migrant workers. To give you a sense of the numbers involved we are probably talking of more than 550 million who depend directly or indirectly on agriculture.

Not that just relaxing farm activities from the purview of the lockdown will be a silver bullet. Farmers are going to struggle to find agricultural workers where they are typically employed. There will also be the issue of supply of important machinery like harvesters which will be available in smaller-than-required numbers and will also need to negotiate border blockages across the country.

If the challenge of timely harvesting wasn’t daunting enough, the produce needs to be procured in the markets where social distancing norms and lack of manpower will again be an impediment. The Indian media has covered very little of the distress in the countryside. To get a sense of what the Covid-19 pandemic can do to agri economy on needs to look at the distressing footages of farmers throwing away their agri and dairy produce in countries like the US.

Clearly, supply of free foodgrains to the rural areas regardless of whether families and individuals have ration cards and other requirements, saving farmers from payouts like interest payments in times of income loss and restart their income flow with direct agri produce procurement, have to be among the critical points in any economic revival strategy in early part of the post-lockdown period. There hasn’t been much discussion on agri-related distress from Covid-19 lockdown because other sectors have been more vocal and typically get sympathetic ears. But make no mistake, if India is to record any kind of economic growth rate in 2020-21 after COVID-19 outbreak, agriculture may just about the best if not the only bet.