Rogoff's Bleak Forecast for the Euro

We have all seen recently what the current Eurozone mess can do to our stockmarkets and to our economy. Therefore, it is in India's interest that Eurozone mess never gets out of control, especially this year when the government's finances are already stretched and it doesn't have the wherewithal for a bailout. Then there is the worrisome current account deficit problem arising from the weakened growth of exports thanks to less-than-satisfactory growth of the global economy and rise in the value of our imports, many of which, we can't do without, chiefly crude oil and edibile oils. To top it RBI has the problem of keeping inflation under check which is still at a fairly high level. In this backdrop, it is further chastening to read eminent economist Kenneth Rogoff's recent article on the euro which has been reproduced in some places http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-centerless-euro-cannot-hold. Now Rogoff is no ordinary dude. He is famous for having studied recessions and downturns over centuries in his book with his ex-World Banker co-author Carmen Reinhart called  "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly". He discusses arguments from the theories of two Nobel prize winners James Meade and Robert Mundell to paint a fairly grim future for the euro. Why is an article like this important? Because  you just have to peep into business papers and TV channels to see the plethora of so-called experts who are giving advice and predictions based on the assumption that things will get back to the same old ways of pre-2008. But will they? Has the global economy changed irreversibly by the global economic crisis? Food for thought.