As the days go by it is becoming clear to me that though there will be a reforms burst after the Presidential elections. At the same time, one can't expect radical reforms. Diesel price hikes will correct some of the madness going on due to months of inaction. In the insurance and mutual funds industry, there might be some moves to get the distributors interested. I am not sure whether that will be enough. One can practically rule out any kind of fiscal stimulus since government doesn't have anything in its bag and is lagging way behind in revenues.Some forward movement in single brand retail, pensions and GST, even a firm date of GST implementation next year will help matters. There are two areas where the government will be keeping its fingers crossed and both deal with inflation. It will hope that the monsoon isn't too bad. It never is perfect and whenever it is too good our country can't handle it with floods and waterlogging give everyone a hard time. Incidentally, what a sad situation it is for an aspiring economic superpower to be dependent on monsoon? That's basically depending on good luck, by the way! If the government can get the bureaucracy to act on the files instead of sitting on them, it will also constitute reforms in my eyes! The other aspect of inflation that the government will be banking on is the base effect of the indices. This will give people an illusion that things are getting better. Of course, the larger question is, are they? For an answer just try buying vegetables and groceries. The high and still rising prices will make you laugh in exasperation. Did anybody say live entertainment?
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