A Peep Into the Future Through My Weekly Home-Buys Basket

Is it reading too much in small things and being an alarmist or is it an indicator of things to come? Like every weekend, I went buying vegetables and groceries earlier in the day today. I didn't return home too thrilled at how light my wallet had become. Vegetable prices and food inflation in general are up once again and big time. We got the government's higher inflation figures late last week. But I didn't realise just how bad things had become. Vegetable prices have practically doubled in Delhi and the National Capital Region ijn the past one month. Worse, the quality of supply is dreadful. Things are probably as bad as middle of last year. While oine can blame local and seasonal factors for rise in vegetable prices which may not be the case here but what about groceries? Their prices, especially branded ones, are also shooting up. For example,. the branded rice bag that my family uses is now costing 10 per cent more since the last time I bought it 45 days back. There seems to be price increases on this front too every 45-60 days. Smart FMCG companies are reducing amount and weights in their packs quietly. And when the Prime Minister tells you that the government needs to raise fuel prices, you can be quite sure that this madness will continue for long. The effect of the Budget 2012's increase in service tax and excise will not have percolated to the system still. It might take a month or 45 more days. So, where does this leave the country's and individuals' finances? I, for one, feel that chances of any further cut in interest rates during 2012 is diminishing by the day. We can expect the economic sentiments to continue to weaken with impact being felt both on the rupee, making imports costlier. Like last year, in high inflation times, people will continue to take refuge of  gold and real estate so that they can preserve the value of invested rupees. Of course, people will end up saving less thanks to high inflation and moderate or no pay hikes. What about stock markets? I suspect that we will need to look for goodies like more currency pumping by central banks abroad. Well, I guess its time to change the topic. "Avengers"  anyone? 

Will the Government's Disinvestment Trick Work?

The government in its latest Union Budget had proposed that it will raise Rs 30,000 crore in the next financial year through disinvestment. Now, given the fiasco it has experienced this financial year where it raised nowhere near the target, what are the chances it will do better next year? Well, the way the government has been going about disinvestment is probably not the best way of going about it. I might be wrong but most of the activity seems to be concentrated near the end of the financial year. There can always be a year-long timetable. The markets may or may not be in a good mood during a short period. Second, is the way issue pricing is done and the role of merchant bankers. Clearly, this set of people can't shed the greed that used to come into pricing even till some years back. When you don't have an euphoric upturn in the market and people are looking for value, aggressive pricing is going to backfire. Next, UPA-II has allies and opposition who just about oppose everything as if there were programmed to do so. Opposing disinvestment will come naturally to them. The ruling party itself has enough people who have not been able to move ahead of 70's and 80's. But the mostt important part of disinvestment is how its proceeds are used. If they are to be used to support wasteful and inefficient expenditures, then is disinvestment such a good idea? I don't think so.